In honor of Easter, here’s a rare egg for the BI Notes blog – information about SAS statistical products! Today guest blogger Phil Low offers some insight about some of the other SAS procedures, particularly those used for the forecasting. Would You Manually Forecast 60,000 Data Items? Ever wake up to find you have to produce forecasts for 60,000 different items? As a data analyst for a medical supply distributor, I have. Manual forecasting under these conditions is neither feasible nor profitable. Enter the FORECAST and ESM procedures. These two procedures combined can produce more than 10 different forecast models to choose from, and can easily be compared against each other with goodness of fit stats. The FORECAST procedure was written in the 1980s and is a simple auto regression with or without trend. Stepwise selection is used to determine which autoregressive lags make it into the final model. Because it is so old, some the more advanced features are better represented by ESM or AUTOREG. The ESM procedure is a moving average model. What’s great about ESM is its ability to throw deterministic trend and seasonality into the mix. You can customize just about every aspect of the model […]
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